Dear Economist1,
我有点想吸烟的念头。吸烟的人好像能从吸烟中获得不少快乐。但我真的不想让吸烟缩短我的寿命。那样，我可以在哪个年龄开始理智地吸烟，以便从中获得足够的快乐，让缩短的寿命变得物有所值呢？
I like the idea of smoking; people who do it seem to get a lot of pleasure from it. But I don't want it seriously to curtail2 my longevity3. So at what age could I sensibly start smoking in order to achieve sufficient pleasure to make the shortening of lifespan worthwhile?
彼得，来自伦敦
Peter, London
亲爱的彼得：
Dear Peter,
你指出吸烟有收益也有本钱，这一点是正确的，而这意味着吸烟可能完全是理性的。你也暗中承认，吸烟会上瘾，由于你的烟消费计划好像将要开始，而且再也不会停止。但这个消费计划的机会可能不太好。第一，有一些证据表明，假如你在年轻时开始吸烟，然后在死于心脏病之前戒烟，你死于心脏病的风险就会飞速减少。（不过，不要问我关于癌症的风险。我是一位经济学家，不是时尚病学家。）
You're right to point out that smoking has benefits as well as cosplayts, and that implies that it might be perfectly4 rational to smoke. You also implicitly5 accept that smoking is addictive6, since your cigarette consumption plan seems to be to start and never sTOP. But this consumption plan may be poorly timed. For one thing, there is some evidence that if you smoke while young and can quit before you die of a heart attack, your risk of heart disease rapidly recedes7.
除去医疗问题外，还有社会问题。假如你目前20岁，而且完全不考虑风险地吸烟，你看着可能有的冒昧、鲁莽，还有那样一点点性感。假如到你60岁的时候，大家看到你在抽烟，他们不会意识到你是聪明地从58岁开始抽烟的。可惜的是，他们只能觉得，你从未能把烟戒掉。
Leaving aside the medical questions, there's the social side. If you're 20 years old and smoke in full defiance8 of the risks, you still have a chance to look brash, daring and just a little bit sexy. If people see you smoking at 60, they won't realise your brilliance9 in taking up the habit at age 58. They'll simply assume that, pathetically, you've never been able to quit.
因此，我的建议是，抽烟的最好策略是要么永远不要开始，要么年轻时就开始吸烟，然后飞速戒掉。你的选择取决于很多方面，其中之一是你对自己意志力的估计。这在事先非常难猜测。可能你应该对你说的大夫，说你计划开始吸烟，并问问他怎么样在开始抽烟后戒掉。至少，你会引起他的注意。
My advice, then, is that the optimal10 consumption path for cigarettes is either never to start, or to start young and sTOP fairly quickly. Which you choose depends on, among other things, your estimate of your own will-power. This is hard to guess in advance. Perhaps you should tell your doctor you plan to start smoking, and ask him for advice about how to quit once you've started. At least you'll get his attention.
