They came, they saw - and while they have yet to conquer, foreign banks' cash tills in China are ringing. In the first five months of this year, overseas banks' profits in the country grew by an annualised 43 per cent, according to regulators; although the total is still small at just $400m shared among 75 banks.
自去年年底以来,胜利者和小角色之间的差距已然加强--当时,中国针对那些期望从事人民币业务的外资银行推行了新的规范。资本金的需要并不繁重,但额外一级的管理需要却让不少银行停住了脚步:到现在为止,只有12家外资银行在中国完成了法人注册。
The gap between winners and bit-players has widened since the end of last year, when China implemented1 new criteria2 for banks wanting to conduct local-currency services. The capital requirements were not especially onerous3, but the extra layer of administration served to deter4 many: so far, just a dozen have incorporated.
包含花旗集团在内已经完成注册的西方银行,都在大力扩展分行互联网--花旗集团的第20家分支机构将于周四开始营业。它们很多增设网点的部分目的在于吸引富有些个人顾客。这类顾客一般都有我们的公司,因此也会带来企业银行业务。其它一些银行将重点放在为跨国公司提供服务。作为日本最大的银行,三菱UFJ金融集团在中国的业务有85%至90%倚赖日资公司。但这两类银行都开始看重当地顾客,反映出中国3亿到4亿个人顾客的潜力--这其中可能有5千万到1 亿顾客是中等或中等以上收入水平。
Western banks that have done so, including Citigroup, are rolling out more branches - the US bank opens its 20th on Thursday - in part to woo wealthy inpiduals. The latter often run their own companies and so bring corporate5 business too. Other banks concentrate on servicing multinationals6. Mitsubishi UFJ, Japan's TOP lender, relies on Japanese companies for around 85-90 per cent of its China activity. But both camps have an eye on local customers, reflecting the pool of 300m-400m inpiduals, maybe 50m-100m of whom are in the middle-income bracket or higher.
这类数字无疑是诱惑的,除去高昂的启动本钱,外资银行正处于某类型似于甜蜜点的状况。事实将证明,近期刚刚完成资本结构调整的当地大型银行一旦开发出愈加成熟的商品,将带来强大的角逐。目前中国非常有吸引力的利差水平是利率管制的因果,因此不会保持太长期。外资银行还受益于存贷比宽限时,使得它们发放的贷款占存款的比率可以超越规定的75%。因此,除非外资银行可以吸收到很多人民币存款,不然在宽限时结束后,它们的雄心或许会遭到限制。行业巨头应该能微笑着出线,但小规模的在华外资同行估计会落败出局。
The numbers are undoubtedly7 enticing8, but high start-up cosplayts aside, foreign banks are enjoying something of a sweet spot. Competition from the big local banks, only recently recapitalised, will prove formidable as they develop greater product sophistication. The current attractive interest rate spreads are a symptom of regulated rates - and thus have a limited shelf life. Foreign banks are also benefiting from a grace period allowing them to make loans beyond the stipulated9 75 per cent of deposits. So unless banks are able to attract sizeable local currency deposits, ambitions could be crimped when that waiver ends. The industry's giants should be able to emerge smiling, but expect several of their smaller rivals in China to fall by the wayside.